THE NO B*S GUIDE TO WINNING WADS OF CASH ON BETFAIR
Hi, welcome to my guide on laying horses to win money.
How am I qualified to write this guide ?. Well in the eighties I was a Bookmaker in Camberley in Surrey.
After qualifying as a manager with William Hill, I took out my licence at Tottenham magistrates court and went solo.
I met a lot of people in the industry and of course as a layer, I laid off parts of my shops liabilities with Heathorns, a subsidery of Corals, in those days.
I was learning this amazing trade all the time, who wins, who loses, who knows what and who doesnt.
Horseracing is an amazing sport, it is a great spectacle, finding ways to WIN is an amazing, life long learning curve.
Punters would come in my shop and put their very last tenner on a favourite, if it lost they were skint. One punter came in on many a Friday afternoon and always backed the favourite in the last race (laughingly called the getting out stakes), with most of his wages on it, if it lost his wife and kids had next to nothing to live on the coming week. His wife kept coming down to the shop begging me to ban him !! - I had to explain to her, I couldn't, apart from being a lousy gambler, he had done nothing wrong...
Times have changed big time, punters can now be bookmakers. The world of gambling has opened up - there are more gamblers, more layers and more of everything, thanks to new legislation and of course, the good old internet.
Now we didn't have Betfair back then but we sure have it now. I want to share with you some of the things I have learnt about making money on Betfair.
Betfair is a great opportunity for punters to beat the odds. Punters can shop around on the internet and often will get better odds on Betfair.
We don't have the dreaded tax on bets now that we used to have (remember 10% tax ?) but on Betfair we do have the 5% Betfair deduction on winning bets/lays.
Who would have thought that punters can compete amongst themselves and lay and bet at odds suitable to them (not the bookie)?. Of course you do have to get matched in the first place.
If you a backing a horse to win, it has to beat, say 9 rivals.
Now we all know that some horses have better chances than others to win, so even in a 10 horse race, the horse you pick MAY NOT have a one in 10 chance of winning. It could be better, or it could be worse !! How can it be worse than having a 1 in 10 chance to win if there are only 10 runners ??? Simple - It may not want to win. It might have a headache. It just might be outclassed and have NO chance of winning - WHO KNOW ?.
You can have the best horse in the race, but if it doesn't feel like winning - IT WON'T WIN !!
Now lets look at the other side of that coin, suppose you were laying it to LOSE..... It wouldn't matter if it had a headache would it ? in fact you probably are hoping it has got a headache....
Because of the very nature of the game and the general true odds of any average punter picking a winner, it makes sense (to me) to find losers, instead of trying to find WINNERS !.
The downside of laying is that if you choose a horse to LOSE and it goes and WINS - you have to pay it out at the odds you laid it, i.e if you laid a £100 @ 6.0 (5/1) you will have to pay out £500. that's the main downside.
So, finding horses to lose on a regular basis, how hard can that be ? believe me, it can be hard, WHY ?
Because, if you go for outsiders, the odd WINNER will bust your bank, it may be an 8/1 shot but in order to give value to backers on Betfair, the Layers also have to lay at prices above the true odds (a lot of the time). So this 8/1 shot could now be a 10/1 shot, now your £100 lay has just cost you £1000 of your bank !! OUCH...
So what do we do ? what do I do ?
I find horses in races where they tend to have a bad record of winning, coupled with a layable price.
e.g If my nags lose 80% of the time, I don't want to be laying 5/1 shots because I'll soon go SKINT !!
Because those 2 in 10 will cost me 10 points. My 8 losers in 10 will make me 8 points, so I lose 2 points every 10 lays plus I have to pay 5% to Betfair in commission on my 8 winning lays = 0.40 which equals a 2.40point loss on every 10 lays. That's assuming the 2 losing lays are both 5/1
Result = Trip to the POORHOUSE....
However - WHAT IF
You only laid horses @ 7/2 or below and you still got the same 80% strike rate. Ok lets assume the worst scenario again and say that the 2 in 10 Losing lays were both 7/2 (4.5 on Betfair) that's twice x 3.5 we have to pay out = 7 plus we win 8 (80%) 8 - 7 = 1 less 5% on the 8 winning lays = 0.40. This gives us a PROFIT this time of 0.60 per 10 lays... not much I grant you but its a PROFIT and not a LOSS
Now some people are quite good at this laying lark.
My maximum lay is 7/2, obviously if I see 4.7 instead of 4.5 on Betfair, I'm going to lay it because most of mine will lose. And to be honest, I dont tend to get 2 7/2 winners win in a sequence of 10, It might happen, who knows.
My strike rate is approx 87.5% at present. If I lose 12.5% of the time @ 7/2 - I lose on average 1.25 points times 7/2 = 4.375 per 10 lays less betfair commission of 5% on the winning 8.75 lays = 0.44. This gives me a profit of 5.18 points for every 10 lays - that over 50% profit every 10 lays.
SEE THE DIFFERENCE ??
I hope you have enjoyed this little tutorial, please don't hesitate to contact me if you have any questions
I do have a laying tips service which I have on eBay at the moment, I shall close the book when I have enogh client but please do check out my eBay shop. If you see the service advertised there it means I can take a few more clients this month
All the best to you, it's been fun