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Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology: Comparing Technology Forecast
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Item specifics
- Condition
- ISBN-13
- 9783790808001
- Book Title
- Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology
- ISBN
- 9783790808001
- Subject Area
- Technology & Engineering, Business & Economics
- Publication Name
- Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology : Comparing Technology Forecast Survey
- Publisher
- Physica-Verlag
- Item Length
- 9.3 in
- Subject
- Development / Economic Development, General
- Publication Year
- 1994
- Series
- Technology, Innovation and Policy (Isi) Ser.
- Type
- Textbook
- Format
- Trade Paperback
- Language
- English
- Item Weight
- 13.9 Oz
- Item Width
- 6.1 in
- Number of Pages
- Xvi, 238 Pages
About this product
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Physica-Verlag
ISBN-10
3790808008
ISBN-13
9783790808001
eBay Product ID (ePID)
281066
Product Key Features
Number of Pages
Xvi, 238 Pages
Publication Name
Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technology : Comparing Technology Forecast Survey
Language
English
Publication Year
1994
Subject
Development / Economic Development, General
Type
Textbook
Subject Area
Technology & Engineering, Business & Economics
Series
Technology, Innovation and Policy (Isi) Ser.
Format
Trade Paperback
Dimensions
Item Weight
13.9 Oz
Item Length
9.3 in
Item Width
6.1 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Scholarly & Professional
LCCN
95-173919
Dewey Edition
20
Series Volume Number
1
Number of Volumes
1 vol.
Illustrated
Yes
Dewey Decimal
338.94307
Table Of Content
1 General Method.- 1.1 Review of Western Literature on the Delphi Approach.- 1.2 Overview of the Previous Delphi Experience in Japan.- 1.3 Basic Statistics.- 1.4 Special Aspects of Transposing the Japanese Delphi Approach to Another Country.- 1.5 Outline of Survey Parameters and Data Processing for the Comparison.- 2 Basic Macro Comparison.- 2.1 Expert Knowledge.- 2.2 Importance.- 2.3 Time of Realization.- 2.4 Foresight Precision.- 2.5 International Co-operation.- 2.6 R&D Level.- 2.7 Constraints.- 2.8 Conclusions on the Macro Level.- 3 Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level.- 3.1 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Importance.- 3.2 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Forecasted Time of Realization.- 3.3 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Constraints on Realization.- 3.4 Comparison of the Importance and the Time of Realization.- 3.5 Comparison of the Time of Realization and the Time Variance.- 3.6 Comparing Certainty with Time of Realization Variance.- 3.7 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation with the Importance.- 3.8 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Estimated Time of Realization.- 3.9 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Present R&D Level.- 3.10 Correlation between Constraints and the Necessity of International Co-operation.- 3.11 Correlation of the R&D Level and the Importance of the Topics.- 3.12 Time of Realization and R&D Level.- 3.13 Correlation between the R&D Level and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.14 Comparison of the Importance and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.15 Time of Realization in Comparison with the Constraints on Realization.- 3.16 Comparative Conclusions for the Countries.- 4 Cross Comparisons of Technological Topics on the Micro Level.- 4.1 Comparing some Important Innovation Scenarios.- 4.2 Estimation of the Importance on the Micro Level.- 4.3 Forecast of the Realization Times on the Micro Level.- 4.4 International Co-operation.- 4.5 Time Variance of the Forecast Compared with Certainty.- 4.6 Most Efficient Innovation Projects.- 5 Conclusions.- Literature.
Synopsis
In Japan, the Delphi method is applied since 1971 to foresee possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany in 1992 for the first time. The German expert survey about the development of future technology was based on the Japanese survey conducted in 1991 and discussed the same topics. In this book, the results of both studies are compared and analysed. From the comparison, conclusions can be drawn on the relevance of certain technology fields or disciplines not only for public technology policy but also for companies. Possible times of realization, constraints on the realization, the current R&D level of nations or the necessity of international co-operation give hints about tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.
LC Classification Number
HD72-88
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