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A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data
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Approximately£15.61
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Located in: Fairfield, Ohio, United States
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eBay item number:395268446851
Item specifics
- Condition
- ISBN-13
- 9781519773777
- Type
- NA
- Publication Name
- NA
- ISBN
- 9781519773777
- Book Title
- Predictive Logistic Regression Model of World Conflict Using Open Source Data
- Publisher
- CreateSpace
- Item Length
- 11 in
- Publication Year
- 2015
- Format
- Trade Paperback
- Language
- English
- Item Height
- 0.2 in
- Genre
- Political Science
- Topic
- Security (National & International)
- Item Weight
- 11.5 Oz
- Item Width
- 8.5 in
- Number of Pages
- 102 Pages
About this product
Product Information
Nations transitioning into conflict is an issue of national interest. This book considers various data for inclusion in a statistical model that predicts the future state of the world where nations will either be in a state of "violent conflict" or "not in violent conflict" based on available historical data. Logistic regression is used to construct and test various models to produce a parsimonious world model with 15 variables. Open source data for the previous year is not immediately available for predicting the following year, so an approach is developed that ensures only historical data that would be available for such a prediction is used. Further analysis shows that nations differ significantly by geographical area. Therefore six sub-models are constructed for differing geographical areas of the world. The dominant variables for each sub-model vary, suggesting a complex world that cannot be modeled as a whole. Insights and conclusions are gathered from the models, a best model is proposed, and predictions are made for the state of the world in 2015. Accuracy of predictions via validation surpass 80%. Eighty-five nations are predicted to be in a state of violent conflict in 2015, seventeen of them are new to conflict since the last published list in 2013. A prediction tool is created to allow war-game subject matter experts and students to identify future predicted violent conflict and the responsible variables.
Product Identifiers
Publisher
CreateSpace
ISBN-10
1519773773
ISBN-13
9781519773777
eBay Product ID (ePID)
234723921
Product Key Features
Book Title
Predictive Logistic Regression Model of World Conflict Using Open Source Data
Number of Pages
102 Pages
Language
English
Publication Year
2015
Topic
Security (National & International)
Genre
Political Science
Format
Trade Paperback
Dimensions
Item Height
0.2 in
Item Weight
11.5 Oz
Item Length
11 in
Item Width
8.5 in
Additional Product Features
Target Audience
Trade
Item description from the seller
Business seller information
Premier Books LLC
David Taylor
26C Trolley Sq
19806-3356 Wilmington, DE
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The seller is one of the best there is - high quality books, reasonable prices, securely packaged.
I do, however, recommend some changes to their shipping - they show a shipper (SortHub) on eBay, but the tracking # they email is for a different carrier. It’s difficult to know where my purchase is.
This time, it was delivered a week late. In the grand scheme of things not a big deal. But it shouldn’t be this difficult to accurately track my purchase.
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