Table Of ContentList of Maps. Introduction: "So Peace Brings Warre and Warre Brings Peace." I. IMPERIOGENESIS: THE RISE OF EMPIRES. 1. A Band of Adventurers Defeats a Kingdom: Ermak's Conquering Cossacks. 2. Life on the Edge: The Transformation of Russia-and America. 3. Slaughter in the Forest: At the Limites of the Roman Empire. 4. Asabiya in the Desert: Ibn Khaldun Discovers the Key to History. 5. The Myth of Self-Interest: And the Science of Cooperation . 6. Born to Be Wolves: The Origins of Rome. 7. A Medieval Black Hole: The Rise of the Great European Powers on Carolingian Marches. II. IMPERIOPATHOSIS: THE FALL OF EMPIRES. 8. The Other Side of the Wheel of Fortune: From the Glorious Thirteenth Century into the Abyss of the Fourteenth. 9. A New Idea of Renaissance: Why Human Conflict is Like a Forest Fire and an Epidemic. 10. The Matthew Principle: Why the Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer. 11. Wheels Within Wheels: The Many Declines of the Roman Empire. III. CLIODYNAMICS: A NEW KIND OF HISTORY. 12. War and Peace and Particles: The Science of History. 13. The Bowling Alley in History: Measuring the Decline of Social Capital. 14. The End of Empire? How the Mobile Phone Is Changing Cliodynamics. Notes. Acknowledgments. Index.
SynopsisTurchin offers a bold, controversial theory of world history, examining amongother topics, how ancient history explains current geopolitics, whether Chinaor Europe can dominate the world, and if America is in decline., Why do some nations, initially small and insignificant, go on to build mighty empires, while most nations fail to do so? And why do those successful empire-builders always eventually lose their empires? Peter Turchin, a leading thinker in the highly technical field of population dynamics, lucidly presents for the first time an approach to understanding the world's great powers throughout history--with powerful implications for nations today. Turchin shows how the edges of empires are the crucibles of new long-lived empires and how processes of decline inevitibly follow on a 1000 year cycle. This sweeping work of social science culminates with a crisp declaration of the general principles of the science of history. A short final section considers Tolstoy and free will in a world of historical cycles, and includes an incisive look at the U.S. now., Borrowing ideas from the natural science disciplines of statistical mechanics and nonlinear dynamics, Turchin (ecology and evolutionary biology, U. of Connecticut) has formulated a science of history called cliodynamics (Clio is the muse affiliated with history). Here he applies his theory to the rise and fall of empires, illustrating his argum, Why do some nations, initially small and insignificant, go on to build mighty empires, while most nations fail to do so? And why do those successful empire-builders always eventually lose their empires? Peter Turchin, a leading thinker in the highly technical field of population dynamics, lucidly presents for the first time an approach to understanding the world's great powers throughout history--with powerful implications for nations today. Turchin shows how the edges of empires are the crucibles of new long-lived empires and how processes of decline inevitably follow on a 1000 year cycle. This sweeping work of social science culminates with a crisp declaration of the general principles of the science of history. A short final section considers Tolstoy and free will in a world of historical cycles, and includes an incisive look at the U.S. now.