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Evidence-Based Technical Analysis : Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David Aronson (2006, Hardcover)

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About this product

Product Identifiers

PublisherWiley & Sons, Incorporated, John

ISBN-100470008741

ISBN-139780470008744

eBay Product ID (ePID)53741686

Product Key Features

Book TitleEvidence-Based Technical Analysis : Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals

Number of Pages544 Pages

LanguageEnglish

TopicFinance / General, Investments & Securities / Analysis & Trading Strategies

Publication Year2006

IllustratorYes

GenreBusiness & Economics

AuthorDavid Aronson

Book SeriesWiley Trading Ser.

FormatHardcover

Dimensions

Item Height1.8 in

Item Weight27.4 Oz

Item Length9.3 in

Item Width6.5 in

Additional Product Features

Intended AudienceTrade

LCCN2006-014664

Reviews".".. "his book is well written and contains a great deal of information that is of value... ." ("The Technical Analyst," May/June 2007), "... his book is well written and contains a great deal of information that is of value...." ( The Technical Analyst, May/June 2007), ".".."his book is well written and contains a great deal of information that is of value...." ("The Technical Analyst, " May/June 2007), ,,".""his book is well written and contains a great deal of information that is of value...." ("The Technical Analyst," May/June 2007)

Series Volume Number274

Table Of ContentAcknowledgments. About the Author. Introduction. PART I Methodological, Psychological, Philosophical, and Statistical Foundations. CHAPTER 1 Objective Rules and Their Evaluation. CHAPTER 2 The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical Analysis. CHAPTER 3 The Scientific Method and Technical Analysis. CHAPTER 4 Statistical Analysis. CHAPTER 5 Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals. CHAPTER 6 Data-Mining Bias: The Fool's Gold of Objective TA. CHAPTER 7 Theories of Nonrandom Price Motion. PART II Case Study: Signal Rules for the S&P 500 Index. CHAPTER 8 Case Study of Rule Data Mining for the S&P 500. CHAPTER 9 Case Study Results and the Future of TA. APPENDIX Proof That Detrending Is Equivalent to Benchmarking Based on Position Bias. Notes. Index.

SynopsisEvidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining., "Evidence-Based Technical Analysis" examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout the book, expert David Aronson provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining., Evidence-Based Technical Analysis rigorously applies science and statistics to determine the effectiveness of technical analysis in forecasting markets and providing profitable trading signals. To move technical analysis forward, the Aronson proposes a new type of technical analysis, which he calls: evidence-based technical analysis., "Professor Aronson has done yeomans work incorporating established statistical practices into the analysis and interpretation of technical analysis and other market theories. I can say without qualification that this book should be in every serious market practitioners collection." Victor Niederhoffer, Chief Speculator, Manchester Partners author of The Education of a Speculator and Practical Speculation As an approach to research, technical analysis has suffered because it is a "discipline" practiced without discipline. In order for technical analysis to deliver useful knowledge that can be applied to trading, it must evolve into a rigorous observational science. Over the past two decades, numerous articles in respected academic journals have approached technical analysis in a scientifically rigorous and intellectually honest manner, and now, Evidence-Based Technical Analysis looks to continue down this path. Organized into two parts, this valuable resource first establishes the methodological, philosophical, and statistical foundations of evidenced-based technical analysis (EBTA), and then demonstrates this approach by using twenty-five years of historical data to test 6,400 binary buy/sell rules on the S&P 500. Evidence-Based Technical Analysis examines how you can apply the scientific method, and recently developed statistical tests, to determine the true effectiveness of technical trading signals. Throughout these pages, expert David Aronson details this new type of technical analysis that unlike traditional technical analysis is restricted to objective rules, whose historical profitability can be quantified and scrutinized. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, Evidence-Based Technical Analysis provides you with comprehensive coverage of this new methodology, which is specifically designed for evaluating the performance of rules/signals that are discovered by data mining. Experimental results presented in the book will show you that data mining a process in which many rules are back-tested and the best performing rules are selected is an effective procedure for discovering useful rules/signals. However, since the historical performance of the rules/signals discovered by data mining are upwardly biased, new statistical tests are required to make reasonable inferences about future profitability. Two such tests, one of which has never been discussed anywhere heretofore, are described and illustrated. If you want to use technical analysis to navigate todays markets, you must first abandon the subjective, interpretive methods traditionally associated with this discipline, and embrace an approach that is scientifically and statistically valid. Grounded in objective observation and statistical inference, EBTA is the approach to technical analysis you need to succeed in your trading endeavors.

LC Classification NumberHG4529.A77 2007